Rabobank: Everything is happening everywhere all at once – Gulf Insider
Everything is happening everywhere all at once – yet key markets are failing to capture it or aren’t explaining the second or third-order implications where they are.
US stocks failed to carry over the Friday dead-cat bounce on Monday, with the S&P -0.4% and the NASDAQ -1.2%. Treasury yields correspondingly went down, with the 10-year at 2.88% (-6bps) and the 2-year at 2.54% (-3bps). However, the actual move was in oil, which rose more than 3%. Oil and wheat are only a tiny part of CPI. However, a minute change in them impacts everything, directly or via second or third-order effects. Oil is at $113 and rising despite the slowdown. Likewise, US supply chains remain structurally hampered.
Sri Lanka is officially down to its last day of petrol. Angry people were burning down politicians’ houses and now they seem to be attacking anyone looking wealthy. Iran and Tajikistan see food protests.
Reports say inflation has now peaked and is pushing bond yields lower. Meanwhile, nominal pay is rising rapidly. Microsoft announced it was nearly doubling its wage budget to retain staff.
Deglobalisation is happening. With geostrategies in place, Turkey is blocking Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO.
Article edited for Brevity. Read the full article here.
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